The 2023 NFL Draft is quickly approaching, and it’s time to make some predictions about what will happen in Thursday’s first round.
An important note: This is what I think WILL happen. What I think SHOULD happen will come later this week in my player rankings.
Without further ado, here we go.
- Carolina Panthers (from CHI)
Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
The Panthers made the massive trade with Chicago for number one for one reason and one reason only: to draft their franchise quarterback. They get their choice of several options, and all of Young, CJ Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis have been thrown around in this spot. I think the Panthers opt for Young, who despite his size, carried Alabama throughout his career and knows how to win in tight spots.
- Houston Texans
Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
In perhaps the greatest middle finger ever thrown by an outgoing coach, Lovie Smith cost the Texans the number one pick by beating Indianapolis to end the season last year. Full disclosure – I think Levis will be a disaster in the NFL, but Texans’ ownership loves him and will likely pressure the front office into making him the pick. I hate it, but I think it’ll happen. For the record, my NFL fanhood is going up for auction if this is the selection.
- Arizona Cardinals
TRADE: Indianapolis and Arizona swap spots
The Cardinals, new coaching staff, management, and all, have a lot of leverage here. I think they rope-a-dope the Colts, who are desperate for a quarterback, into jumping up to three. The Cardinals move back one spot, stockpile an additional pick or two, and get to pick the guy they want anyway.
CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Another quarterback with some question marks, but his incredible career at Ohio State should be good enough for the Colts to rationalize taking the risk. I like him a lot more than Levis or Anthony Richardson, and the Colts will probably feel they are getting a steal, but he’d make it past Arizona at three if they don’t make the trade.
- Indianapolis Colts
TRADE: Arizona moves back to four
I explained the rationale for the trade earlier. Indy is too desperate at quarterback, and I think they make a drastic move (and a mistake, given that Arizona won’t be taking a QB).
Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Alabama
This outcome would be a home-run-and-a-half for the Cardinals. Other teams’ desperation for quarterbacks lands them the best player in the draft. Anderson has all the tools to be an incredibly disruptive player right off the bat in the NFL. Arizona would gladly take him at three without the trading shenanigans, but if it can also pocket a future first-round pick in the process, that would be an incredible night.
- Seattle Seahawks (from DEN)
Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
My second-ranked player in the draft behind Anderson, Carter is an absolute menace up front. Seattle is in desperate need of a legitimate run–stopper, and Carter is just that. Pre-draft off-field concerns aside, the Seahawks will pick the best player available, who also happens to be a perfect fit for what they need. Pete Carroll and co. can go to work on any character issues, if there end up being any.
- Detroit Lions (from LA Rams)
Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
The Lions will likely feel they are playing with house money with this pick acquired as part of the Matthew Stafford trade. Detroit has a few glaring needs on defense, and Witherspoon has the tools to come in as a lockdown corner immediately. He was the linchpin of the Illini’s elite pass defense in 2022, and I would expect similar performances in the NFL.
- Las Vegas Raiders
Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Let me start off by saying that I don’t think Richardson will be very good in the NFL at first. He has all the athleticism in the world which has scouts drooling, but his tape at Florida suggests a ton of rawness and questionable decision making. The best scenario for him would be to go somewhere he can sit and learn for a year, which Las Vegas could theoretically offer him if Jimmy Garoppolo stays healthy. Nonetheless, don’t be surprised if Richardson has an incredibly rocky beginning to his NFL career.
- Atlanta Falcons
Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech
Atlanta would certainly love to add an elite pass rusher, and Wilson has the potential to be just that. The Falcons might have more pressing needs, but given where they are picking, Wilson could be the best available player regardless of position. The defensive line is enough of a need that Wilson would make a ton of sense here.
- Chicago Bears (from CAR)
Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
Who doesn’t love when teams draft from local colleges? The Bears have a glaring need on the offensive line, and Skoronski just happens to be my best-ranked OL on the board. It makes too much sense. The Bears could be stealth candidates to trade down (again), but I think they stick at 9 and take the local kid.
- Philadelphia Eagles (from NO)
Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
The best offensive player in this draft. Fans in the back half of the first round are kidding themselves if they think Robinson is falling to their teams. The Eagles need a running back, and Robinson is talented enough to break all the rules when it comes to drafting running backs early. This is exactly the kind of boost the Eagles need to try and make a repeat trip to the Super Bowl.
- Tennessee Titans
Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
I can’t really get a good read on what Tennessee wants to do here. They have needs all over the place, but I think Banks is a good place for them to start. He’s just behind Witherspoon in terms of coverage ability, and he figures to slot in as a dependable outside corner. We’ll see, though. Nothing would surprise me here.
- Houston Texans (from CLE)
Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
The Texans have a lot of other needs to address, but it makes sense to immediately grab a number one WR for your newly drafted quarterback. I have Johnston as the highest-ranked receiver in the draft. Anyone who watched him last year at TCU knows that his size and speed combination is a nightmare for anyone covering him. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Stroud’s college teammate Jaxon Smith-Njigba here if that’s the direction they go at number two, but I still think Johnston is a better prospect overall.
- Green Bay Packers (from NYJ)
Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Just an all-around physical specimen. I certainly wouldn’t want to gameplan against him. Mayer has all the traits to be a dominant receiving TE in the NFL and would be the perfect addition to the Packers’ next era. Whether it’s Jordan Love or someone else running the offense, Mayer will be a valuable target for them.
- New England Patriots
Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
I watch a lot of Pac-12 football, and I don’t really understand the hype behind Gonzalez as a top-tier pro. I have other corners rated higher than him that are still available, but he aced the draft process so well that I think teams will have him rated very highly. New England needs a number one corner. While I don’t think that’s what Gonzalez will be, the Patriots might disagree.
- New York Jets (from GB)
Paris Johnson Jr., OL, Ohio State
With Aaron Rodgers at the helm, the Jets will be much more competitive (we think…?) in 2023. New York’s defense is already in a great place, but the offensive line could use an upgrade. Johnson is the highest-rated OL available at this point. I think this is the direction they’ll go, but watch out. The Jets could take one of the high-rated receivers left on the board to pair with Garrett Wilson. Imagine the JSN-Wilson band back together at MetLife.
- Washington Commanders
Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Washington has a pretty big need in the secondary, and Porter could be as good as any other defensive back in this draft. This pick almost makes too much sense. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Commanders try and go somewhere else, but with Porter left on the board, I don’t think the Commanders can afford to make the mistake of passing him up.
- Pittsburgh Steelers
TRADE: Chargers Trade Up for a Receiver
Los Angeles needs to upgrade at the receiver spot, and Pittsburgh’s needs and current player availability match to make them perfect trade partners. The Steelers move back and eventually select the player they probably want anyway.
Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Addison is the perfect complement to what LA already has going on the offensive side of the ball. He’s a bit on the smaller side, but his quickness and agility with the ball in his hands will give the Chargers an element they don’t have right now. Some people are concerned about his running times at the combine, but in pads with the ball, I think he’ll be faster than the metrics suggest.
- Detroit Lions
Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson
Outside of Aidan Hutchinson, the Lions need to beef up their defensive line, and with Murphy available, this seems like a no-brainer. Murphy can line up opposite Hutchinson or break inside to vary looks. Either way, Murphy would give Detroit an immediate boost on the defensive front.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Darnell Wright, OL, Tennessee
Tampa could go in many different directions here, but I think they’ll try to beef up their offensive line with my best available tackle remaining. Now, what I wanted to do here was mock a trade with San Francisco to get Trey Lance, but I’m not doing that.
- Seattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
If JSN is still on the board at 20, it almost feels like the Seahawks have to take him. I really do think injury concerns given how his last year went could cause him to slip down the board, but Seattle, given its need for playmakers on the outside, would likely jump at the chance to add Smith-Njigba at this point in the draft. At number 20, the ceiling is too high not to take the risk.
- Los Angeles Chargers
TRADE: Pittsburgh Trades Down
Pittsburgh, with its needs on the offensive line, looked at the landscape at 17 and decided it could wait a few picks and still get their guy, allowing LA to trade up to get a big-time playmaker.
Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Jones is just behind Wright on my board but is just as capable of a force up front. He’ll slot immediately into the Steelers’ offensive line, providing a much-needed upgrade. If Pittsburgh can manage to trade down and still snag a guy like Jones, Thursday night will be a huge success.
- Baltimore Ravens
TRADE: Ravens Acquire DeAndre Hopkins
I really think this is a legitimate possibility. We know Lamar Jackson is interested in pairing Odell with Hopkins, and the Ravens are halfway there. Dangling this pick in front of Arizona might be enough to get the deal done.
Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
This might seem like a reach to a lot of people, but at 6-2, 200+, Ringo already has the physicality to make it big in the NFL. After Byron Murphy’s departure, corner is a glaring need for Arizona, and Ringo fits the bill. Why not replace one Arizona hometowner with another?
- Minnesota Vikings
Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia
The run on the national champions continues with Smith coming off the board to Minnesota. Smith could go much higher than this, so if he falls to 23, Minnesota would be wise to snatch him up. He showed his entire career at Georgia what he’s capable of, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he continues to develop in a positive way. I have him rated a little lower than most because he got to play alongside Carter at Georgia, who likely took attention away from him. Still a very solid player.
- Jacksonville Jaguars
Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
The Jags are a little light in the secondary, and Smith is my best-remaining corner left on the board. He’s big enough at 6-1, 180 to match up with NFL receivers, and he was impressive throughout the pre-draft process. His college tape against future NFL-receivers is pretty solid as well. I like Smith a lot; I have him rated higher than others I have mocked ahead of him.
- New York Giants
Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
The Giants will be eager to secure an upgrade at receiver after making a massive commitment to Daniel Jones at quarterback, and Flowers could be exactly what they need. At only 5-9, he’s pretty small, but his shift and quickness in traffic will be an issue for defenses. A solid option for New York and certainly one that will help Jones continue to develop.
- Dallas Cowboys
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Jerry Jones has a history of glossing over other needs to upgrade the Cowboys’ playmaking, and I’m predicting the same to happen here. When healthy, Kincaid is an electric pass-catcher and a nightmare to defend. If his medicals were crystal clear, he’d probably have a chance to be a top-15, even top-10 pick, but his health could hold him back early on. If he’s 100%, Dallas gets a stud here.
- Buffalo Bills
Bryan Bresee, DL, Clemson
A lot of people have Buffalo going for a receiver at this spot given some ensuing instability at the position, but the Bills have other needs with stronger available options. Bresee is an absolute stud that can plug the middle or come off the edge. Earlier mocks had him in the 10-15 range, so Buffalo should feel they are getting a steal with Bresee at 27.
- Cincinnati Bengals
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
My word, do the Bengals need help on the offensive line. However, they also have a need at running back, and at this point, Gibbs is by far the best player available overall. A shifty pass-catching back, Gibbs gives Joe Burrow a nice upgrade out of the backfield. Given Samaje Perine’s free agency departure and Joe Mixon’s legal issues, Gibbs is a nice insurance policy to have as well.
- New Orleans Saints (from SF via MIA and DEN)
Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa
It feels pretty rare for the Saints to stay put in the first round and make their originally-scheduled pick, but I think they actually do it this year. Van Ness is rated pretty highly by most, so getting him at 29 would be a steal for New Orleans, especially in a spot of great need. Would be a great pick.
- Philadelphia Eagles
TRADE: Packers Get Back Into First Round
Armed with extra draft capital after the Rodgers trade, Green Bay uses some of it to jump back into the first round and address a major need.
Brian Branch, S, Alabama
Green Bay has an obvious hole in the back end of the secondary, and Branch, my highest-rated safety, can fill that hole immediately. He has the skills and abilities necessary to be a top-tier defensive back. A steal at 30, and worth the extra pick or two it would take for the Packers to get him.
- Kansas City Chiefs
Rashee Rice, WR, SMU
The Chiefs absolutely need to address the wide receiver position, and Rice is my highest-ranked wideout left on the board. There have been some concerns about his performances during the pre-draft process, but his college tape is incredibly impressive. There are other interesting wideouts left available, such as Josh Downs and Jalin Hyatt, but I give the edge to Rice in this case. There’s always the Hunt family/Dallas connection that can’t be discounted either, and SMU has a great track record with NFL receivers.
There’s no 32nd pick in the first round after Miami was forced to give it up after the Tom Brady/Sean Payton conspiracy and fiasco.
Follow Nick Hedges on Twitter @nicktrimshedges or Instagram @nicktrimshedges