Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale is no stranger to big gambles.
The Houston-based furniture salesman made a name for himself through his astronomical (no pun intended) bets on major sporting events, most notably the Astros’ recent World Series appearances. After Houston won in 2022, Mack took home what is largely believed to be the biggest payout in the history of sports betting.
Mack’s most recent series of wagers, however, takes the risk to a whole different level. According to CBS Sports, he has over $3 million riding on TCU to beat Georgia outright in next week’s national championship, split between three different books.
For good measure, he also tossed $1 million on the Frogs to cover a 13-point spread.
I understand that Mack loves a good high-stakes gamble, but this is borderline unreasonable. The shortest odds he got on TCU were +370 on DraftKings, signaling that Vegas has little-to-no confidence in the Horned Frogs to win the game. Granted, they were underdogs in the Fiesta Bowl against Michigan, but Georgia is an entirely different proposition as an opponent.
TCU certainly has an elite offense, but Georgia’s defense is the toughest unit it will line up against all season. Georgia ranks first in the Power 5 in rush yards allowed per game and will likely force TCU to beat them through the air.
For a lot of teams, a one-dimensional offense is a recipe for disaster. However, the Frogs have something that even Georgia hasn’t faced this season: a Heisman-finalist quarterback and a soon-to-be first-round-picked wide receiver.
The Max Duggan-to-Quentin Johnston combo has been about as deadly as any in college football this season, and Georgia has surprisingly shown little sign of being able to stop it. In its two biggest games of the season, the Bulldog secondary got absolutely torched.
Unable to run the ball in the SEC Championship, LSU still threw for over 500 yards against Georgia, the majority of which was put up by the Tigers’ backup quarterback. The Dawgs followed up that dismal showing by allowing nearly 350 yards to CJ Stroud and Ohio State (probably not even that bad against those guys).
If that isn’t encouraging enough for TCU, the Frogs’ offense is coming off a 500-yard performance of its own against Michigan, a defense often compared to Georgia throughout the season.
What I’m trying to say is this: Mattress Mack, you’ve got a chance!
Not only does TCU have a chance, but I think it’s got a pretty good chance.
On the flip side, the argument for a Georgia runaway is that TCU’s defense has been…shaky at times this season (we’ll just put it like that). The Frogs have been susceptible to physical running teams, a weakness exposed in its loss to Kansas State. Georgia, arguably the most bruising offense in the country, could potentially play keep-away and simply keep Duggan and company off the field.
The Frogs are also vulnerable against more aggressive offenses, exemplified by Michigan’s near comeback in the Fiesta Bowl, which, depending on your thoughts on these two plays, should have been completed:
Wolverine quarterback JJ McCarthy threw not one but TWO pick-sixes in the game, and Michigan still almost won. A single defensive touchdown against you is very hard to overcome. Imagine having to get the better of two of them. TCU very nearly allowed that to happen.
Against a quarterback like Stetson Bennett, those game-shifting mistakes will be much tougher to force. Bennett only threw multiple interceptions in two games this season, and while he may not be flashy, he also won’t easily make big miscalculations in the passing game.
I have every confidence that TCU will score a healthy amount as they have done all season. It will all come down to the iffy Frog defense against a consistent Georgia offense. If the Dawgs can play keep-away, it will be a long night in SoCal for fans in purple.
However, if the Horned Frogs come up with the stops and get the ball to their offense, watch out. Hypnotoad has stupefied opponents all season under the brightest of lights. Don’t be surprised if they pull off the unexpected one more time.
The Pick: TCU +12.5 (spread at the time of writing)
Follow Nick Hedges on Twitter @nicktrimshedges or Instagram @nicktrimshedges
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[…] and some devastating losses. Some great bets and some stupid ones (for a recent example, check out my preview of last week’s national […]