UFC Vegas 67 Imavov vs. Strickland
Welp, the first fight card of 2023 in the UFC has concluded, as has our first iteration of #FadeBeans, a gambling segment where I give you my picks and you get to make millions fading me.
If you played along for UFC Vegas 67, here are your official results.
Punahele Soriano (-155) vs. Roman Kopylov (+135)
Fight result: Roman Kopylov def. Punahele Soriano via TKO (strikes) at 3:19 of Round 2
Beans’ pick: Roman Kopylov +135
Bet result: W
If you faded this pick I honestly don’t blame you. While I was all in on Kopylov, it easily could’ve gone the other way. What ended up being the deciding factor in this fight was Kopylov’s ability to keep his opponent guessing. The diversity in his striking patterns paired with his length allowed for the kick that folded Puna. I figured at +135 there was good value and I ended up being correct.
Javid Basharat (-315) vs. Mateus Mendonca (+260)
Fight result: Javid Basharat def. Mateus Mendonca via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Beans’ pick: Javid Basharat (-315)
Bet result: W
Unlike the above, if you faded this pick I don’t feel bad for you at all. Due to the nature of this segment, and my prior betting record, I know I naturally incur feelings of distrust. But this pick in particular was never going to be wrong. I trusted the Snow Leopard to get it done. Also, as soon as I saw the video below, I knew he had it in the bag.
Javid doesn’t play games. I’ll be riding this guy from here on out.
Charles Johnson (-340) vs. Jimmy Flick (+280)
Fight result: Charles Johnson def. Jimmy Flick via TKO (punches) at 4:33 of Round 1
Beans’ pick: Jimmy Flick (+280)
Bet result: L
Ah, yes, this is more like me. This is a classic Beans play: pick an underdog and come up with some reason to justify it. In my pre-fight article, I spewed some nonsense about how Johnson “hasn’t impressed me yet”. Today, I stand corrected. Johnson showed he has incredible punching power and can finish a fight with ground and pound. Consider me humbled. I take back everything I said about Johnson. The dude is dangerous at 125 lbs.
Nassourdine Imavov (-120) vs. Sean Strickland (+100)
Fight result: Sean Strickland def. Nassourdine Imavov via unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
Beans’ pick: Nassourdine Imavov (-120)
Bet result: L
I’m not going to make excuses for my poor gambling picks–never have and never will. But IN MY DEFENSE, I was going to leave this fight alone.
In any case, my pre-fight analysis ended up being correct. The thing that got Nassourdine was his empty gas tank. I should’ve known better. Aside from standing directly in front of his opponents and inviting war, Sean Strickland is known for having impeccable stamina. He is used to the 5-round scraps, Imavov is not. In the end, Strickland stood strong in the later rounds, while Nassourdine fatigued. If you faded, great call.
Profit analysis
After every fight card, we’ll tally up the profit from fading Beans using a standard $10 bet for every pick (assuming the odds given at the time of the wager).
If you bet $10 and faded every pick, your record was 2-2, and you profited $2.94 from fading Beans.
2023 profits made fading beans: $2.94.