I’ve been an avid follower of the Pac-12 for my entire life.
It was the Pac-10 for a while, and then Utah and Colorado came over to make it 12. At one point, it looked like we were getting Texas among other schools to form the nation’s first superconference.
Oh, how the conference has fallen since then.
A disastrous commissioner tenure by Larry Scott left the conference in a really tough spot, and things have arguably gotten worse since George Kliavkoff took over. Cash cows USC and UCLA are leaving for the Big Ten, and every other member of the conference seemingly has eyes on other possibilities.
Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado are one phone call away from joining the Big 12. Washington and Oregon have been perpetually linked with the Big 10, with their respective sister state schools attached to them. Hell, even Cal and Stanford have been tossed around as viable partners for a Notre Dame-type addition to the Big 10.
The reality is that the conference is on the verge of its deathbed. I had hoped for a while, but recent news about the conference’s TV negotiations has changed my outlook.
The only thing keeping the remaining ten members in tow was Kliavkoff’s promise of a massive rights deal that would top the Big 12’s most recent agreement in terms of annual value per school. He was publicly confident that he could secure such a deal.
However, with news that CBS Sports and Turner are no longer involved in negotiations, and ESPN’s assumed lack of willingness to shell out legitimate money, the Pac-12 is probably destined for streaming.
Apple and Amazon have been mentioned as potential suitors, but for now, nothing tangible has come of the negotiations.
Remember as well that the Pac-12 opened its renegotiation window early in order to get a deal done and beat the Big 12 to the punch. That was nine months ago.
Babies have been conceived and born since the Pac-12 has actively been looking for a new deal, and yet, there’s no progress; perhaps more importantly, the Big 12 secured its future with a nice contract with ESPN and Fox.
As Pete Thamel pointed out for ESPN earlier this week, it’s clear that media partners don’t think the Pac-12’s current 10-school offering is worth anything. As a result, the conference is trying to add new members.
San Diego State and SMU have been the two schools most closely linked with becoming members of the conference. To Kliavkoff’s credit, I understand the logic behind the additions of both universities.
San Diego State allows the conference to maintain some kind of footprint in southern California after USC and UCLA leave, and SMU gives the conference access to the Dallas-Fort Worth market, one of the biggest in the country and traditionally the heart of Big 12 territory.
Invading the Big 12’s geography doesn’t seem like the worst move.
However, that logic is also somewhat flawed: San Diego State is a big school but has nowhere near the market share of UCLA or USC in that region.
Additionally, even though SMU is located in the heart of Dallas, it doesn’t have as tight a hold in the area as Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, or even Texas Tech. It’s a small private university with, in fairness, a large financial amount to invest in athletics.
The conclusion there is that neither San Diego State nor SMU really does much to make up for the losses of USC and UCLA. They ease the problem, sure, but they certainly don’t solve it.
As someone who holds degrees from Arizona State and SMU, I’d personally love to see SMU join the Pac. The Sun Devils in Dallas every year for basketball and every other year in football? Sounds great to me!
Still, I recognize that SMU doesn’t move the needle a ton when you’re trying to replace top-tier brands like UCLA or USC.
Overall, it’s taken about 650 words to get to the conclusion that the Pac-12 is in some serious trouble. Luckily, the expanded College Football Playoff, which virtually guarantees the Pac-12 champion a spot in the bracket, largely protects it from extinction. However, nothing is really stopping it from losing all relevance.
Ultimately, there’s a pretty clear path for the Pac-12 to completely implode. I’ll get into it in part two of this blog, but as a Pac-12 alumnus and fan, I don’t feel good at all about the future of the conference.
Follow Nick Hedges on Twitter @nicktrimshedges or Instagram @nicktrimshedges